Precaucus Roundup

I'm here in the PEC fieldhouse, along with around 50 other students. We're eating pizza (provided by the Campus Dems) and chatting about the caucus.

Here are the big questions going into tonight's Ward 1 caucus:

1. Who will win the ward? It will almost certainly come down to either Obama or Edwards, with perhaps an edge to Obama at the moment. There are a lot of Obama buttons being flashed in the fieldhouse right now--but remember that members of the town will be caucusing too, so whoever wins the student vote won't necessarily win the ward, though it helps.

UPDATE: I got rough estimates from Obama and Edwards student organizers; the Edwards people say they have about 30 committed students, the Obama people said that they more than double that. Take those numbers with a grain of salt, but in terms of general trends, they would match up with casual observation. Again, remember that non-students will compose the majority of those present.

2. Will Hillary Clinton be viable? Given that she might win the state, it seems a little shocking to be asking this question about the most powerful Democratic ward in the state with 37 delegates (23 percent larger than the next-largest precinct), but it's a real question. Hillary never campaigned on campus, and hadn't shown up in the county before the end of the semester. Former President Bill Clinton did come and was generally well-received, but Clinton doesn't have a very strong local organization, and has very little (though enthusiastic) support on campus. It's a very real possibility that Clinton won't reach the 15 percent threshold in this ward.

3. Will anyone else be viable? Chris Dodd has his partisans, and came twice this semester to decent crowds, but he doesn't look to have a real shot at viability here. Bill Richardson and Joe Biden are more likely candidates to do well, but don't look for both of them to succeed in the ward. There's not enough votes to go around for two candidates with similar (foreign policy-based) niches. Joe Biden in particular impressed a lot of people with his appearance earlier this semester and would seem to be the best bet for a second-tier candidate to reach viability. A lot could depend on what deals are being cut between campaigns; both Biden and Richardson are reported (and denied) to have arrangements with Obama to receive help getting viable in exchange for sending their non-viable supporters Obama's way.

I'm going over to the Harris Center, where the caucus will be held, right now. I will update more as time goes on. If you have any questions, post them in the comments.

-DM