A message from Don Smith

Poweshiek County Democratic Chair Don Smith just stopped by the gym and gave me a statement thanking all student Democratic caucus-goers:

"I just want to say thanks to all the Grinnell College students resident in Poweshiek County who came back from other places to take part in our caucuses. We look forward to electing a Democratic president and other Democratic public officials in November. Thanks again, happy New Year and good luck."

Remainders

Dodd drops out.

Biden, too.

Final results: Edwards takes second--barely, by exactly seven delegates, or one more than mere viability in Ward 1 would have given her.

Obama won big--and with a heavily Democratic turnout (76% Democrats, 20% independents, 4% Republicans--scroll down, but plenty of interesting statistics there)

Everything turns now to New Hampshire.

Thanks for tuning in, everyone!

After the Caucus

The PEC fieldhouse is almost empty now. Most of the hundred-plus students here are off at off-campus parties, notably a pretty wild Obama victory party.

We got kicked out of the Harris cinema before 11, ending the CNN-watching party shortly after Obama's victory speech. Students have to be out of the PEC by noon tomorrow; the Dems are providing breakfast of some sort.

Why Grinnell Matters

Grinnell College mattered a lot in this election.

How? Just look at the vote for second place.

In Grinnell's precinct, the most powerful in the state, achieving bare viability is worth 6 delegates to the county convention. The state Democratic party reports results in terms of delegate counts.

John Edwards and Hillary Clinton are in a neck-and-neck battle for second place in Iowa. Being able to say that one didn't finish third--or last among the top three--is immensely valuable, particularly for Hillary Clinton, who needs to minimize the cost of her loss in Iowa.

How close is that race? Well, at the present time, with 99 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton trails Edwards by 7 delegates.

Clinton was non-viable in Ward 1 here in Grinnell, a mild surprise.

Had Clinton been merely viable in Ward 1, she would have received 6 delegates.

Clinton fell short of viability by 29 voters.

If THIRTY additional Clinton supporters had showed up to caucus for her, she would be in a virtual tie for second with Edwards--and perhaps ahead, if a viable Clinton group here might have attracted more support from the Richardson camp.

Alternately, if the Richardson camp had given most of their support to Clinton instead of Biden, Clinton would be viable.

Why wasn't Clinton viable in the most powerful Democratic precinct in the state? Well, for one, she didn't campaign here. She didn't even campaign in Poweshiek County. Surely an energizing visit by the potential first female president could have drummed up 30 supporters.

Also, on the subject of Grinnell's influence, let's not forget that it was a Grinnell student, Muriel Gallo-Chasanoff '10, who sparked a damaging scandal for Clinton by telling the S&B that her question to Senator Clinton at an event in Newton was planted by the campaign. That furor resulted in a week of bad headlines for Clinton and coincided with a newly aggressive Barack Obama and John Edwards and a fumble by Clinton at a debate. If Gallo-Chasanoff had stayed home that day, don't you think that Clinton would have at least been in second place tonight, if not first?

Thirty votes. One question. Grinnell matters.

(Hat tip to Doug Cutchins, who first pointed this out to me tonight.)

Update

Almost everyone has gone. A few dozen people are gathered in the gym to conduct official business and ratify the delegates; another few dozen are in the cinema watching the network news.

UPDATE: Delegates and alternates have been approved without dissent.

Results called in

Don Smith is calling in the results to state headquarters.

Obama wins Iowa

The networks and the AP have called Iowa for Obama

With 1534 of 1781 precincts reporting, Obama has 36.84%, versus 30.15% for Edwards and 29.92% for Clinton.

UPDATE

Biden still has 6 delegates

Edwards now has 10, down from 11

Obama now has 21, up from 20.

Now, preference groups will select delegates to the county convention. The Obama group is in the cinema, choosing 21 delegates, etc. The county convention is Saturday, March 15. Groups can select alternates as well.

The county conventions select state convention delegates, which select national convention delegates. Each election a number of Grinnell students manage to be delegates to the national Democratic convention--often all you have to do is be persistent (or just volunteer).

Other wards

In Grinnell Ward 4 Democrats:

Obama 8 delegates

Edwards 7

Clinton 4

There were about 200 people there.

Grinnell Ward 1 GOP:

Huckabee 32.1%

McCain 14.2%

Paul: 7.1%

Romney: 26.2%

Thompson: 10.7%

Giuliani: 8.3%

Write-in: 1.2%

There were 85 people present.

Final results

121 for Edwards.

78 for Biden.

263 for Obama.

That adds up to a bit less than 484.

Statewide, 1212/1781 precincts reporting, Obama has 34.96%, Edwards 31.26%, Clinton 30.96%.

DELEGATES

Biden: 6 delegates.

Edwards: 11 delegates

Obama: 20 delegates.

UPDATE:

Representatives from each of the three groups are being called up to certify the delegate counts.

Notable support

Don Smith caucuses for Edwards in the first round.

Campus Democrats chair Alec Schierenbeck, previously neutral, has gone for Obama in the second.

Round 2 group preferences!

The Biden people announce that they are viable. Formal sorting will now occur.

Obama supporters being sent to the Cinema. Biden on the left of the gym, Edwards on the right.

UPDATE: The Edwards group is a bit larger than the Biden group. Results coming imminently.

UPDATE 2: Edwards group is counting.

GOP, Precinct 2

CNN calls Iowa for Huckabee

I'm told that Clinton isn't viable in the second precinct of Grinnell.

Biden Update

The Biden people, 15 minutes before the time out, have requested to count themselves to determine if they are viable--they clearly think they're doing well. They're going off to the Harris Cinema to get a good count. The Richardson sign just walked out with the Biden people--have they joined forces? 

UPDATE: There got the Dodd people, too. The smaller candidates seem to be aligning around Biden.

UPDATE 2: WOW. Big shock. There goes the Hillary sign off towards the Biden group in the cinema. Is Clinton done in ward 1?

UPDATE 3: The Clinton group may not be done--they may be getting their own count. It's unclear, some confusion.

UPDATE 4: Some clarification: There's three rough groups in the cinema, and they're "trying to make a deal." Clinton, Biden, and Dodd. Biden seems to be doing the best. The Dodd group, remember, intimated that they might support Biden if they weren't viable. 10 minutes left.

UPDATE 5: Obama and Edwards supporters are heading into the cinema to participate in the bargaining.

Errata

Smith explanation: "We have 37 delegates for the country convention ... Once we have every viable group, our 37 delegates are divided up proportionally among those groups."

Smith reminder: Observers are not permitted to participate in discussions. Observers affiliated with campaigns are allowed to advise their own group but not attempt to convert others.

Live updated statewide results

AP story: “Democrats Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama vied for victory Thursday night in the Iowa caucuses, while Mike Huckabee battled Mitt Romney among Republicans. John Edwards lagged in a survey of voters entering the caucuses by The Associated Press and the television networks.”

Update

Everyone is back in the same room following the first round. 

Biden 51, small applause. "So far, not viable."

Clinton 44, mixture of small applause and smatterings of disapproval and surprise.

Edwards 102, big applause, viable.

Grave, 1. "I think we need to respect every candidate," Smith said.

Obama, 240, huge applause. Viable.

There will now be half an hour for people to rearrange themselves.

Biden needs 22.

Clinton needs 29.

Vote Counts

240 Obama supporters-- just under half of the total attendees!

102 Edwards

51 Biden

26 Richardson
1 Gravel
13 Kucinich
No uncommitteds
44 Clinton
8 Dodd

484 total attendees, 485 in the sum of the groups. "I think that's pretty good for this number of people," said Smith.

Addendums

Each group has the responsibility to count their own supporters. 

Don Smith is leaving to join a preference group himself.

Visual metaphor?

Don Smith: It seems that "the Biden and Richardson groups are merging together. Can I get a clear separation between them?"

Update

There's a lot of Edwards supporters, too, though not close to the number of Obama supporters. None of the other candidates look like they've got the needed 73 people, though Clinton might be close.

UPDATE: There's also a fair number of Biden supporters, probably not quite viable. But with uncommitted and other candidate support, they may reach viability. 

UPDATE 2: The Biden people just sent up a cheer, they may be viable.

Caucus separation

Biden supporters are being sent to the Harris Cinema and told to sit in the center seats from the front.

Obama supporters are being sent to the Harris Cinema and told to sit in the center seats starting in the rear. The Obama supporters are moving and there's a LOT of them. Close to, if not more than, half. This could be over quickly, people. EDIT: The Obama people don't fit in the space alotted; the Biden people have been asked to come back into the gym.

Dodd people have been sent to the left side of the gym. There's a bare handful, maybe a dozen at most.

Richardson supporters are told to stay where they are and other people told to "get out of their way."

There are Kucinich supporters present--more than for Dodd. They've been sent into the back corner.

The Clinton supporters have been sent to the right side of the Cinema. 

Edwards supporters have been sent to the left side of the Cinema (a cheer from the Edwards people at being given the left), but told to wait for the Biden people to leave before they come in.

There's one Gravel supporter in the center of the room.

UPDATE: The "uncommitted" people, almost forgotten, have been told to assemble in front of the stage. There's not that many.

Caucus count

There are 484 people registered for this caucus. (Edited to reflect a late entrant)

Viability is 73 people.

Microphones are working again! a round of applause.

The separation into candidate groups has begun.

Doors Closed

The doors have been closed, and observers are being separated out from the caucus-goers.

Due to technical difficulties, the microphones are not working, and so Don Smith is shouting to be heard over the crowd.

Ward One Expectations

The Obama campaign is confident, they say they have 61 core student supporters and possibly more and are optimistic about their chances.

Matt Horowitz '10, an Edwards precinct captain, predicted a "close second" for Edwards in the ward but said that he was hopeful about Edwards winning.

A Clinton precinct captain said that she was confident that Hillary would be viable here.

The Biden, Dodd and Richardson groups are focused on achieving viability, which no one would predict with certainty. Sarah Adams, a Dodd precinct captain, said that if Dodd doesn't achieve viability they'll try to decide their second choice as a group and may work with the Biden supporters to choose a common candidate in later rounds.

Photos

Update

Don Smith, co-Chair of the County Democrats, has called the caucus to order in his role as temporary caucus chair. He has been nominated and confirmed by general acclamation as permanent chair. Elizabeth Dobbs was nominated and confirmed as permanent caucus secretary. There are hundreds of people in the room, and would seem to be at least two-thirds non-student. At 7 p.m. CT, the caucus will reconvene and break into candidate preference groups.

Precaucus Roundup

I'm here in the PEC fieldhouse, along with around 50 other students. We're eating pizza (provided by the Campus Dems) and chatting about the caucus.

Here are the big questions going into tonight's Ward 1 caucus:

1. Who will win the ward? It will almost certainly come down to either Obama or Edwards, with perhaps an edge to Obama at the moment. There are a lot of Obama buttons being flashed in the fieldhouse right now--but remember that members of the town will be caucusing too, so whoever wins the student vote won't necessarily win the ward, though it helps.

UPDATE: I got rough estimates from Obama and Edwards student organizers; the Edwards people say they have about 30 committed students, the Obama people said that they more than double that. Take those numbers with a grain of salt, but in terms of general trends, they would match up with casual observation. Again, remember that non-students will compose the majority of those present.

2. Will Hillary Clinton be viable? Given that she might win the state, it seems a little shocking to be asking this question about the most powerful Democratic ward in the state with 37 delegates (23 percent larger than the next-largest precinct), but it's a real question. Hillary never campaigned on campus, and hadn't shown up in the county before the end of the semester. Former President Bill Clinton did come and was generally well-received, but Clinton doesn't have a very strong local organization, and has very little (though enthusiastic) support on campus. It's a very real possibility that Clinton won't reach the 15 percent threshold in this ward.

3. Will anyone else be viable? Chris Dodd has his partisans, and came twice this semester to decent crowds, but he doesn't look to have a real shot at viability here. Bill Richardson and Joe Biden are more likely candidates to do well, but don't look for both of them to succeed in the ward. There's not enough votes to go around for two candidates with similar (foreign policy-based) niches. Joe Biden in particular impressed a lot of people with his appearance earlier this semester and would seem to be the best bet for a second-tier candidate to reach viability. A lot could depend on what deals are being cut between campaigns; both Biden and Richardson are reported (and denied) to have arrangements with Obama to receive help getting viable in exchange for sending their non-viable supporters Obama's way.

I'm going over to the Harris Center, where the caucus will be held, right now. I will update more as time goes on. If you have any questions, post them in the comments.

-DM

Campaigning at Grinnell: A Recap

Here is a list of the events, by campaign, that were held on campus and in the town of Grinnell this semester. (Note that a number of candidates visited the town of Grinnell or the college over the summer when most students were not present; those events are not included.) Individuals or events marked with an asterisk occurred on campus, while candidate visits are italicized.

We've tried to be as thorough as possible, but we may have missed someone. If you know of an event this semester that we missed, leave a comment and we'll add it.

EDIT: I've scoured the web for video of these events and linked to them where video exists. In most cases, video only exists in small excerpts or in poor quality, but it's what we've got. If you know of video of campaign visits to Grinnell that we don't have listed here, give a link in the comments.

Democrats

Biden
*Senator Joe Biden (12/3)

Clinton
Former DNC Chair Terence McAuliffe (8/30)
Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright (9/14) (newly added)

*Former Ambassador Joe Wilson (10/15)
*Former President Bill Clinton (12/10, three excerpts: out-of-state student caucusing, Sen. Clinton's role in health care, Sen. Clinton's early career)
Former Ambassador Richard Holbrooke (12/20)

Dodd
Senator Chris Dodd (10/6, *12/13)
Rep. Anna Eshoo (11/18)

Edwards
*Cate Edwards (daughter of John), James Denton (from "Desperate Housewives") (9/29)
Elizabeth Edwards (11/3)
*Bonnie Raitt and Jackson Browne (11/20)
Former Senator John Edwards (*11/20, 12/12, the video is a montage)
Actor Tim Robbins (12/12)

Obama
*Former South Carolina State Supt. of Education Inez Tenenbaum (8/30)
*Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes (10/17)
*Senator Barack Obama (12/4, an amateur video, see also part two)
Prof. Cornell West (12/13)
Michelle Obama (12/31)

Richardson
New Mexico Secretary of Education Veronica Garcia (12/1)
*New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (11/5)

Republicans

Brownback
Senator Sam Brownback (9/15)

Huckabee

Governor Mike Huckabee (1/3/08)

McCain
Senator John McCain (10/10, also parts two, three, four)

S&B Coverage of the Jan. 3 Caucuses

Many students are planning to return to Grinnell to participate in the hugely important 2008 Iowa Caucus on Jan. 3. However, many others would like to return but can't, due to the distance and time commitment or other priorities like work or family. 

For these students, their families  and anyone else who is interested in the caucus process but can't be there, be sure to come to the S&Blog on the evening of Jan. 3. I'm going to be at the caucus in Grinnell's precinct as a reporter, working on stories for a special web-only edition of the S&B at our website.

During that evening, however, I'm going to be posting on this blog a live play-by-play of the evening's events. I'll be posting about what is said in the speeches, how many people show up, which candidates they support, and, above all, the results. As soon as each round of the caucus is complete, I'll post the results, so that you can track the caucus's progress throughout the evening. Or just check in at the end of the night to get the final result.

I'll also be posting pictures and video (which I'll be taking with a camera provided the S&B in partnership with the Des Moines Register and YouTube) throughout the evening.

Before and after the caucus, I'll try to also fill this blog with caucus-relevant material. Finally, a day or two after the caucus, be sure to visit our website for our web-only caucus edition with interviews, analysis, reaction and behind-the-scenes information.

-David H. Montgomery

co-Editor-in-Chief

The Scarlet & Black